A major transformation in two-wheeled and three-wheeled electric vehicle batteries is approaching
发表时间：2025-07-07
Author: Qidian Lithium - Zhihu
Recently, BYD, a leading new energy vehicle manufacturer, held a conference and announced its full entry into the electric two-wheeled and three-wheeled vehicle market. At the conference, BYD put forward the slogan "Lead-acid batteries exit, lithium iron phosphate batteries start anew," attracting attention from industry insiders.
Analysts point out that BYD's entry into the two-wheeled and three-wheeled vehicle battery market may reshape the market structure. In 2025, with the introduction of policies such as national strong standards, white lists, and 3C certification, lithium batteries for electric bicycles will enter an era of high-quality development.
Meanwhile, platforms like Hello and Meituan have quickly adjusted their strategies, increasing the deployment of shared electric bicycles that meet the new national standards, which has driven the growth in demand for lithium batteries for two-wheeled shared/swappable electric vehicles. The deepening of the national old-for-new subsidy policy, coupled with the implementation of new consumption models such as battery leasing and vehicle installment payments, has jointly stimulated end-user demand through the combined force of supply and demand. Additionally, factors such as the growth in exports of domestic electric two-wheeled vehicles overseas have driven the demand for lithium batteries.
In Qidian Lithium's view, 2025 will witness a "major transformation" in lithium batteries for two-wheeled/three-wheeled vehicles. Amid huge opportunities, the market structure remains undetermined, and players are showcasing their respective strengths. A competition focused on technological innovation and product iteration has just begun.
01 New National Standards/National Strong Standards Spur New Demand for Batteries
The implementation of the new national standards has driven another period of high growth in the two-wheeled vehicle industry. The new national standards for two-wheeled vehicles were released at the end of December 2024 and will come into effect on September 1, 2025.
After entering 2025, electric two-wheeled vehicle enterprises have achieved an overall recovery. On the supply side, the implementation of the new national standards has reduced uncertainties in the external environment; on the demand side, the old-for-new policy continues to exert its effect. Thus, the combined force of supply and demand has stimulated end-user demand and boosted industry confidence.
A-share listed companies such as Aima Technology, Ninebot, and Sunra have achieved overall growth. In the first quarter of 2025, Aima Technology and Sunra achieved revenues of 6.232 billion yuan and 1.054 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of 25.82% and 39.47%; their net profits attributable to shareholders were 605 million yuan and 29.92 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of 25.12% and 19.08%.
According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, as of April 8, 2025, 3.341 million electric bicycles nationwide were sold as old ones and replaced with new ones, equivalent to 2.4 times the total replacement volume from September to December 2024. With the arrival of the peak sales season for two-wheeled vehicles, the pace of old-for-new replacements is expected to accelerate continuously.
According to industry forecasts, from 2024 to 2026, 250-300 million existing non-compliant vehicles nationwide will need to be replaced with compliant ones. Compliant electric bicycles and commuter electric motorcycles will see significant market growth.
Compliant lithium batteries have greater advantages in compliant vehicles. On November 1 last year, the "National Strong Standard for Lithium Batteries" was officially implemented, marking the entry of the electric bicycle industry into a new era of compliance. Among them, the most watched acupuncture test was included in the mandatory standards, requiring batteries not to catch fire or explode under simulated extreme internal short-circuit conditions.
Industry insiders believe that the national strong standards can eliminate the previous chaos of "bad money driving out good money" in two-wheeled vehicle lithium batteries to the greatest extent, reduce safety accidents at the source, and guide the high-quality development of two-wheeled vehicle lithium batteries. A series of policies aimed at improving the safety of electric bicycles have been intensively introduced, which will greatly stimulate the rapid development of the two-wheeled vehicle lithium battery market.
To meet the requirements of the "Technical Specifications," various lithium battery enterprises have launched a technological upgrading battle.
BAK Battery released the PRO-M high-safety battery in the first quarter of 2025, which not only passes the most stringent acupuncture test in the industry and meets the safety performance requirements of the "Technical Specifications" but also achieves an upgrade in overall performance, aiming to provide more reliable and efficient energy solutions for two-wheeled travel.
At present, Starlight Power has become the first enterprise in the industry whose entire range of lithium battery products has passed the CQC 3C certification of the China Quality Certification Center; Mianyang Chuangming's independently developed 32140 cylindrical lithium-ion battery has successfully passed the new national standard 3C mandatory inspection certification, becoming one of the first batch of lithium battery enterprises in China to obtain this certification.
02 Battery Swapping Mode Accelerates Penetration "With the Wind"
According to statistics from Qidian Research (SPIR), the penetration rate of lithium batteries in the electric two-wheeled vehicle industry had already reached 22.4% in 2020, with shared electric bicycles and the B-end battery swapping market contributing significant growth.
At that time, in the shared electric bicycle lithium battery market, enterprises such as Starlight, Narada, Changfeng, CATL, Gotion High-Tech, and ATL had all entered the market. Power battery enterprises carried out cooperation with shared electric bicycle enterprises. For example, CATL cooperated with Hello Chuxing, Lishen with Meituan, and BYD/Gotion High-Tech with Qingju Bicycle.
However, the good times did not last long. Due to changes in market policies, the development of shared electric bicycles in many places was suspended. Moreover, in the following three years, because lithium battery products themselves were relatively more expensive than lead-acid batteries, and with the skyrocketing prices of lithium carbonate in 2021 and 2022, the price gap further widened, leading to a continuous decline in the penetration rate of lithium batteries, which dropped to 4.9% by 2023.
In 2025, the full implementation of the new national standards has pressed the accelerator for the battery swapping industry.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in 2024, the number of national intra-city express deliveries reached 15.64 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%. The delivery methods for intra-city express deliveries mainly include electric two-wheeled vehicles, electric three-wheeled vehicles, motorcycles, and vans. Intra-city delivery couriers have high work intensity and long delivery distances, and the battery swapping cabinet mode of replacing batteries instead of charging can greatly improve work efficiency.
Twenty cities including Shenzhen and Hangzhou have piloted the inclusion of "battery swapping cabinets in municipal infrastructure," with new residential communities required to reserve battery swapping points; Shenzhen has adopted a subsidy policy of 0.2 yuan per swap, reducing the annual operating cost of a single cabinet for operators by 30%. Policy dividends are not only reflected in subsidies but also promote the penetration of the battery swapping mode from B-end scenarios such as food delivery riders and couriers to C-end markets such as household users and shared travel through measures such as "old-for-new" subsidies and priority road rights.
Within this year, Shenzhen plans to add another 20,000 battery swapping cabinets. Vehicles and service outlets of brands such as Luyuan, Tailg, Yadea, Aima, Dudu Battery Swapping, and Xiaoha Battery Swapping are ready; BYD's customized battery swapping batteries have completed certification and are about to be launched; China Tower's battery swapping pilot in Longgang is advancing steadily; leading industry enterprises are jointly building a convenient battery swapping service network.
Data from Qidian Research (SPIR) shows that the market size of China's electric two-wheeled vehicle battery swapping industry was 8.4 billion yuan in 2023. With the strengthening and confirmation of the dominant position of the battery swapping route for electric bicycles, electric bicycles are expected to gradually shift from the original charging-based model to a new pattern of "battery swapping as the mainstay, charging as a supplement." The next 5-10 years will be a golden period for the development of two-wheeled vehicle battery swapping, with the market size expected to reach 105 billion yuan by 2030.
# Data Source: Qidian Research Institute (SPIR)
On the battery demand side, although all swap batteries currently use lithium batteries, the vast majority are non-compliant 60V and 72V batteries that fail to meet national standards, with an existing market stock of approximately 3-3.5 million sets. As policy supervision tightens, the compliance of battery swapping is gradually advancing. Cities such as Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Kunshan are conducting compliance-based battery swapping pilots. The nationwide promotion of compliant battery swapping is inevitable, and it is expected to bring an annual market growth of millions of sets for compliant lithium batteries.
## 03 Overseas Demand Drives Lithium Battery Enterprises to Expand Globally
As the global electrification transformation kicks off, Chinese industrial chain enterprises have expanded their competitive battlefield from domestic markets to all corners of the world.
According to data from China’s General Administration of Customs, the total export value of China’s electric two-wheeled vehicles exceeded 40 billion yuan for the first time in 2024, reaching 41.4 billion yuan. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2017 to 2024 was approximately 18%, maintaining rapid growth. In terms of quantity, the total export volume of China’s electric two-wheeled vehicles reached 22.11 million units in 2024, with a CAGR of about 13% from 2017 to 2024. The average selling price (ASP) per exported electric two-wheeled vehicle in China stood at around 1,872 yuan in 2024.
The overseas market for two-wheeled and three-wheeled vehicles has boomed, with demand concentrated in Europe, the United States, Southeast Asia, and South Asia. Among these, the European and American markets are seeing steady penetration, while Southeast Asian markets have a clear orientation toward shifting from gasoline-powered to electric vehicles.
In recent years, affected by fluctuations in crude oil prices, worsening environmental pollution, and sustained economic growth, Southeast Asian countries such as Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam have launched "gasoline-to-electric" policies. They encourage people to purchase electric two-wheeled vehicles through measures like car purchase subsidies, gradually advancing the electrification transformation of two-wheeled vehicles.
In the overseas lithium battery market for two-wheeled vehicles, enterprises like Starlight Power have delivered outstanding performance. In the electric two-wheeled vehicle sector, Starlight Power’s lithium batteries are exported to 30 countries and regions, including Germany and France. To date, the cumulative sales of Starlight Power’s lithium batteries have exceeded 33 million sets, ranking first in global shipments for seven consecutive years. Overseas, Starlight Power is among the top five suppliers in the lithium battery industry for electric bicycles in Europe.
Meanwhile, Starlight Power has firmly secured the top position in the Southeast Asian market: its market share of lithium batteries for electric bicycles has exceeded 50%, and its market share of lithium batteries for electric motorcycles has jumped to the forefront of the industry with an annual growth rate of 120%.
To seize market opportunities, battery enterprises have begun to promote the localization of production capacity.
- On February 16, Eve Energy’s Malaysian factory rolled out its first battery, marking the start of production and operation of Eve Energy’s first overseas factory. The factory mainly produces cylindrical batteries for power tools and electric two-wheeled vehicles, and currently has a high-quality production capacity of 680 million cylindrical batteries per year.
- Similarly, on February 18, Ha Sida announced plans to invest in the construction of a 2.5GWh cylindrical battery base project in Malaysia, with a total investment of approximately 750 million yuan. The project has "lithium-sodium co-production" capabilities, and the cylindrical batteries produced are suitable for power tools, home appliances, energy storage, and electric two-wheeled vehicles.
- In April, Tianpeng Power, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Weilan Lithium Core, announced the official opening of its factory in Selangor, Malaysia. This is Tianpeng Power’s first overseas factory to officially start production, with a total first-phase capacity of approximately 400 million units per year.
## 04 Sodium-Ion Batteries Enter the Market
Amid the wave of "shifting from lead-acid to lithium batteries," sodium-ion battery technology is rapidly emerging as a new trend, attracting attention and layout from numerous enterprises. With its advantages of low cost and low-temperature resistance, it aims to compete with lead-acid batteries and lithium batteries.
According to Qidian Lithium’s observation, light-duty power applications have become one of the fastest scenarios for the implementation of the sodium-ion battery industry. Almost all sodium-ion battery enterprises have targeted this track and launched new products.
In the industrial chain, based on incomplete statistics by Qidian Lithium:
- Vehicle manufacturers include Yadea, Sunra, Tailg, Aima Technology, and Niu Technologies.
- Battery enterprises include CATL, BYD, Lishen, Tianneng, Superway, Starlight Power, DFDP, Cubic New Energy, Weifang Energy, Xibei Power, Veken Technology, Liangjian Sodium Battery, Jinnai Technology, Zhongna Energy, Yingong Technology, EAST, Bona New Energy, and Ha Sida Sodium Star, among others, all of which have launched sodium-ion battery products.
Many sodium-ion battery products have been applied in light-duty power markets such as two-wheeled vehicles. For example, electric vehicle enterprises including Yadea, Sunra, Tailg, Zongshen, Opai, and LIMA have successively released electric vehicles equipped with sodium-ion batteries. These products have been piloted on a small scale in third- and fourth-tier cities and have begun to be sold on the market:
- In August 2023, Sunra, in cooperation with Huayang Group, launched the world’s first batch of commercial electric two-wheeled vehicles powered by sodium-ion batteries, which began trial sales in some markets across China.
- In December 2023, Tailg’s "First Love EB - Super Sodium Battery Version" was delivered to individual users and launched for sale in Beijing and Jinan.
- In addition, Yadea’s models equipped with "Jina 1," such as the Yadea Jina G25, have been put into operation in cities including Tangshan, Hangzhou, Wenzhou, Guangdong, and Shenzhen.
Focusing on the battery swapping market, BYD stated in 2024 that it had implemented a pilot project for the integrated application of charging and swapping for electric two-wheeled vehicles powered by large cylindrical sodium-ion batteries in Shenzhen, achieving intelligent integration of vehicles, cabinets, and batteries.
In March last year, Yadea collaborated with the Shenzhen Municipal Government to launch a sodium-ion battery swapping pilot, providing food delivery riders with a "battery swap in 30 seconds, go immediately after swapping" service. In addition to developing the "sodium-ion battery swap instead of charging" model, Yadea also introduced real-time big data monitoring into the entire life cycle of batteries. It joined hands with enterprises such as Meituan to launch sodium-ion battery swapping pilots and has successively delivered Yadea sodium-battery electric vehicles to Meituan.
In line with Shenzhen’s goal of building a "battery swapping city," Yadea, together with its subsidiary Huayu New Energy, released a world-leading sodium-ion smart energy solution that supports ultra-fast battery swaps in 30 seconds.
According to the latest survey data from Qidian Research Institute (SPIR), the shipment volume of sodium-ion batteries in Q1 2025 was 1.55GWh, a year-on-year increase of 273%. Among this, the shipment volume of sodium-ion batteries in the light-duty power sector accounted for 21%.
We believe that with the development of sodium-ion battery technology, sodium-ion batteries are expected to replace part of the lead-acid battery market in the two-wheeled vehicle sector. They will stand alongside lithium batteries and lead-acid batteries as one of the three mainstream battery technology routes. It is predicted that by 2030, the penetration rate of sodium-ion batteries in the two-wheeled vehicle sector will reach 41%, corresponding to a sodium-ion battery demand of 40GWh.
## 05 Large Cylindrical/Square/Pouch Batteries Compete in the Same Arena
Unlike square batteries, which dominate the automotive power sector, in the industrialization process of light-duty power, battery enterprises are "crossing the river by feeling the stones." Square, pouch, and cylindrical form factors have all become choices for enterprises, aiming to build product matrices to meet diverse scenario needs.
For example, on May 17, BYD officially released a full range of batteries for two-wheeled and three-wheeled vehicles, with 32 battery models planned and 8-9 models currently on the market. All products adopt the lithium iron phosphate battery system and are reported to cover square aluminum cases, blade batteries, and cylindrical batteries. Using automotive-grade cells, BMS (battery management systems), and processes, these batteries are safer and more durable. BYD has established cooperation with two-wheeled and three-wheeled electric vehicle brands such as Sunra, Huaihai (Zongshen), LIMA, Tailg, and Jinpeng to provide them with power battery solutions.
From Qidian Lithium’s perspective, the "competition between large cylindrical, square, and pouch batteries" reflects two key points:
1. Lead-acid batteries still account for the main market share in two-wheeled and three-wheeled vehicles, while lithium electrification is in the penetration stage.
2. Different from automotive power systems, the market structure of light-duty power is still undetermined. Additionally, the entry threshold for lithium batteries in two-wheeled and three-wheeled vehicles is relatively low, resulting in a large number of market players (both qualified and unqualified) and a wide variety of products.
Overall, more players in the C-end market currently adopt cylindrical battery solutions. According to survey data from Qidian Research Institute (SPIR), the market concentration of cylindrical battery enterprises for lithium-powered two-wheeled vehicles was relatively high in 2024. The top-ranked enterprises were Hengdian East Magnetic, Eve Energy, BAK Battery, Lishen Battery, and Tianpeng Power.
Notably, driven by full-tab technology, cylindrical batteries are ushering in a new round of development opportunities. From traditional 18-series and 21-series to 3-series, 4-series, and even 6-series large cylindrical batteries, these have become key layout areas for both new and established players.
In particular, for large cylindrical batteries, two-wheeled vehicles have become one of the fastest-penetrating application scenarios. According to statistics from Qidian Research Institute (SPIR), the shipment volume of large cylindrical batteries in the two-wheeled vehicle sector increased by 150% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 2.5GWh.
In March this year, Eve Energy’s OMNI All-Round Battery - LMX Series underwent a comprehensive upgrade, moving from C33 small cylindrical cells to C46 large cylindrical cells. It covers models such as 46137, 40130, and 33135, providing full-scenario light-duty power solutions for electric two-wheeled vehicles, shared battery swapping/shared mobility, balance bikes/scooters, electric motorcycles, and electric three-wheeled/four-wheeled vehicles.
According to Mianyang Chuangming, the 32-series large cylindrical batteries have now officially entered mass production and delivery. The company is focusing on deploying in potential markets such as Europe, the United States, Southeast Asia, India, and Africa, and conducting technical docking and business negotiations with numerous overseas customers.
In a previous interview with Qidian Lithium, DFDP stated that its current customers cover most domestic two-wheeled and three-wheeled vehicle manufacturers, including leading brands such as Aima, Jinpeng, and Xupai, and it provides full-series product solutions such as 40-series, 46-series, and 60-series.
In addition, many enterprises producing sodium-ion batteries also adopt large cylindrical form factors. Leveraging advantages such as larger capacity and lower cost, most enterprises plan to apply 3-series, 4-series, and 6-series large cylindrical sodium-ion batteries in the light-duty power market.
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In terms of prismatic batteries, the main representative enterprises include Starlight Power. As a leading enterprise in the lithium battery industry for electric light-duty vehicles, Starlight Power achieved a remarkable year-on-year growth of over 70% in lithium battery sales for two-wheeled vehicles in the first quarter, firmly maintaining its leading position in the industry.
In the field of pouch batteries, quite a number of players in both the C-end market and shared battery swapping sector have adopted pouch battery solutions.
Farasis Energy is among the earliest power battery enterprises in China to lay out the electric two-wheeled vehicle market, with over 14 years of experience in the application of two-wheeled vehicle products. Its pouch battery products serve clients including well-known domestic and foreign brands such as Zero, CFMOTO, Qiulong, Yadea, Sunra, EMC, Lightfighter, and Polaris. Meanwhile, it has 7 years of market application experience in the battery swapping field, serving customers like Zheli Battery Swapping, Zhizu Battery Swapping, and China Tower.
According to Qidian Lithium, in the electric motorcycle sector, Sinexcel holds the largest market share and adopts high-performance pouch battery products.
Pylontech also stated that, based on tests, the company's "pouch battery + polyanion" solution has demonstrated safety comparable to that of lead-acid batteries. On this premise, it also more accurately meets the requirements of light-duty vehicles in northern regions for batteries with excellent low-temperature performance and endurance.
06
Conclusion
Data from Qidian Research Institute (SPIR) shows that the shipment volume of lithium batteries for electric two-wheeled vehicles in China reached 9.3GWh in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%. With the gradual implementation of China's two-wheeled vehicle-related policies such as GB43854-2024 and GB17761-2024, coupled with the continuous improvement of lithium battery safety performance and the decline in lithium battery prices, the shipment volume of lithium batteries for two-wheeled vehicles will still show an upward trend in the long run. Qidian Research Institute (SPIR) predicts that the shipment volume of lithium batteries for electric two-wheeled vehicles will reach 10.1GWh in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%.
In terms of batteries for electric three-wheeled vehicles, driven by the growth in exports to India and Southeast Asia, the shipment volume of lithium batteries for three-wheeled vehicles in China reached 0.9GWh in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 28.6%. Currently, the penetration rate of lithium batteries in electric three-wheeled vehicles is relatively low (below 8%), and it is expected that the shipment volume of lithium batteries for three-wheeled vehicles in China will reach 9.4GWh by 2030.
Anchored in the huge market opportunities, under the era of compliance, numerous players are flocking in. However, how to break away from the whirlpool of low-price competition and stand out in the mixed market is worth looking forward to.
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